The catastrophic destruction that has occurred in the central Gulf coast of the United States due to Hurricane Katrina is occupying our thoughts. This calamity will consume enormous time and cost to recover from and to provide as much protection as possible from the inevitable next hurricane of this magnitude in this region and elsewhere. This is a sad time.
However, little time has passed before the disaster is being blamed by some of the media on global warming (see, for example, articles in The Belfast Telegraph and the Los Angeles Times. This narrow perspective completely misses the real reason for this disaster. As we, and others, have discussed (see Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2000: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on climate change is needed and Pielke Jr. et al. 2005: Hurricanes and global warming), the significant risks are due to crossing thresholds in our vulnerability to environmental threats of all types. In this case, construction of towns on the immediate coastline and of a city below sea level (New Orleans) makes these regions particularly vulnerable to hurricanes. In the book,
the exposure of the coastal population to hurricanes in the eastern United States is clear (see Figure 2.8 (d) on page 52), with New Orleans clearly at risk. What this figure also shows is that other urban areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts have also become increasingly vulnerable as population grows, and, therefore, infrastructure development accelerates.
Even with respect to global warming, its reasons for occurring over the past several decades, while predominately due to humans (see our Climate Science post of August 29th), is not predominately due to the increase in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, nor is global warming the more significant way humans are altering the climate system (see our Climate Science post of July28th What is the Importance to Climate of Heterogeneous Spatial Trends in Tropospheric Temperatures?). The media have almost universally ignored an accurate description of the spectrum of human forcings on climate as presented in the National Research Council 2005 report.
Thus the advocates of blaming global warming erroneously assume that carbon dioxide emissions are the main cause of this disaster, but miss the other human caused global warming forcings that we summarized in our August 29th blog. They miss that other climate change effects, both due to natural and human- caused influences, such as atmospheric and ocean circulation changes due to spatially heterogeneous climate forcings such as landscape changes and aerosol emissions, have a greater effect than the relatively small magnitude of global warming that has actually been documented (see Pielke and Christy 2005)
The media fail to recognize that climate is complex and involves numerous natural and human climate forcings and feedbacks. To focus on the radiative warming forcing of carbon dioxide shows a complete misunderstanding of the climate system. We recommend they read the 2005 National Research Council report . They also need to understand that we cannot rely on even the complete description of climate change to understand our vulnerability to hurricanes and other weather events. We need to focus on an integrated assessment of the vulnerability of specific societal and environmental resources, (such as an urban center) to the entire spectrum of risks (see Table E.7 in Pielke, R.A. Sr., and L. Bravo de Guenni, 2004, for a summary of the vulnerability perspective as contrasted with using climate models to define risk).
Thus the answer to the question posed in this blog, is that we cannot attribute this disaster to global warming, or even climate change. It is a human-caused disaster resulting from decisions made as to where to locate our population and commerce, without enough protection to avoid inevitable catastrophic consequences.
I have a couple questions concerning global warming.
1. I live in Wisconsin where there is plenty of evidence left from the last visit from the glaciers. My reading tells me there have been three Ice Ages and where I live has been covered with ice at least three times. This would lead me to believe that we may be in a warm up from a previousw ice age. That would indicate global warming. Concerning the “manmade” global warming. Is there evidence of this? If so, how do you sort it out from the natural warming that may be happening? There’s a lot of “hot air” being generated on the discussion of global warming. It seems to be drawn along politcal lines.
In the article you link to in the LA Times, there is a scientist mentioned that believes the hurricane may be the result of global warming. Do you know this man? Is he a credible scientist?
2. Concerning blaming the hurricane on global warming…Rush Limbuagh was yacking about this today and mentioned that the liberals are blaming the hurricane on global warming. I don’t know where the doctor mentioned in the LA Times article is a liberal or conservative or Democrat or Republican, but in the Goggling it did on this story, most are articles are starting off the article lead with something like, “Is Katrina caused by global warming?” Then they get a scientist to say that it certainly could be. Then the talk radio gabbers heap it all on the liberals or Democrats…when one person said it. It seems to be a more complicated scientific issue then people like Rush Limbaugh leads us to believe.
3. If Steve Milloy the Junk Scientist told me F. Fred Singer said there was no way this hurricane is caused by global warming, should I believe him?
4. I heard your name on the Bill O’Reilly radio show concerning the issue you had with the NY Times. I see you and the author of the article seem to be able to discuss the differences, once you got in touch with each other. Where you able to resolve your differences in a professional manner? Also, it sounded like you were familiar with the NY TImes writer’s work. Do consider him to be a person with a pro-global warming agenda or a reporter trying to get a complicated story correct?
5. Rush said the changes called for in the Kyoto Treaty would only hold the average rise in the surface temperature to 2.85 c over the next 100 years. Without the changes called for in the treat, the temperature is estimated to rise to 3 c. Is this what the treaty actually calls for? If so, what difference would the .15 c make. Previously, Rush said that if the polar ice caps melted, it would have no effect on the ocean water levels. He said it would be just like having the ice melt in a glass of water. The level would stay the same…I think he forgot to figure in the fact that most of the ice cap is on land and not in the water.
I’d appreciate you comments on my questions and, if you have any suggestions for reading to help me better understand these issues, I would appreciate them.
Comment by Jim Nelson — August 31, 2005 @ 2:06 pm
An excellent book regarding the vulnerability of New Orleans to flooding is “Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 And How It Changed America by John M. Barry” which was published in 1997 by a company affliated with Simon and Shuster ISBN # 0-684-81046-8. It clearly describes how New Orleans has been very vulnerable to flooding for a long time.
Comment by Roger Pielke Sr. — August 31, 2005 @ 2:58 pm
This statement seems odd, and strongly at variance with the IPCC TAR (eg Fig 6.6). Can you tell us how substantial an effect you estimate CO2 to have had on global temperature, and which other forcings are greater? I’m hoping you can provide something more explicit than a vague reference to a lengthy book (which in any case reproduces that IPCC diagram in its executive summary).
I accept that local effects will often dominate - eg the temperature in Tokyo (near to where I live) has climbed very steeply in recent decades - but you specifically say “global warming” here.
Comment by James Annan — August 31, 2005 @ 7:40 pm
Thanks for the book recommendation. Do you have any recommendations for a good overview for non-scientists that would help me better understand the global warming issue?
Also, you’re a popular guy in the newspaper these days. I read a Knight Ridder News Service article in the St. Paul Pioneer Press about the hurricane and mentioned you. They called you “a disaster specialist.” The previous articles I read about you last week called you a climatologist. What would you call yourself?
Comment by Jim Nelson — August 31, 2005 @ 10:47 pm
Stating explicitly that GW is not predominately due to the increase in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide looks quite unjustifiable to me. I could see that you might say that you don’t think that the attribution is good enough (though I would disagree, as would RP Jr), but to assert that the attribution to other factors is so strong is not justifiable. If you really think that you can do that, can you list the other factors in order, and point to the attribution analysis for them?
Comment by William Connolley — September 1, 2005 @ 2:58 am
William-you make a good point. My statement should have been nuanced. It should read
“Even with respect to global warming, while its reasons for occurring over the past several decades is predominately due to humans (see our Climate Science post of August 29th), it is premature to conclude that global warming is predominately due to the increase in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, nor is global warming the more significant way humans are altering the climate system .
The reason for my view is based on model sensitivity experiments and observations which we and others have completed, such as, for example, the role of atmospheric black carbon and of the surface deposition of black carbon on snow and ice, that I discussed in the blog. Until we accurately include all of the climate forcings that are listed in the 2005 National Reseaech Council (Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties) it is premature to defintively conclude the relative role of each of the climate forcings in global warming.
Comment by Roger Pielke Sr. — September 1, 2005 @ 9:17 am
Thanks for your question Jim- Cambridge University Press is publishing the second edition of a book by William R. Cotton and I later this fall. It is entitled
Cotton, W.R. and R.A. Pielke, 1995,2005 (2nd Edition): Human impacts on weather and climate, Cambridge University Press, New York.
I also recommend
National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties. Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate Change, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309095069/html/
As to references in the media, I am a climate scientist, while my son researches science and tecnhnolgy policy. The news media usually, but not always, uses “Jr.” and “Sr.”. His web page is http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/
Comment by Roger Pielke Sr. — September 1, 2005 @ 10:02 am
As I understand it, it seems more or less settled science that global warming will result in increased SSTs, and that this will in turn result in strengthened hurricanes, all else being equal. SSTs in the northern Gulf are at *record* levels, and after tracking through that area Katrina expanded from a TS when leaving Florida to a full cat 5 just before landfall. Why isn’t this a sufficient basis for a somewhat stronger statement about the Katrina-global warming connection than seems to be getting made? (I should note that I understand perfectly that even without any global warming effect it was only a matter of time before something like this would have happened to New Orleans.)
Comment by Steve Bloom — September 5, 2005 @ 12:46 pm
Steve-Thanks for your comment. On “record” sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, please send a citation for this information. I have not seen this.
The latest information from NOAA (see http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html for September 6, 2005) actually shows below average SSTs in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, presumably from the stirring of the water by Katrina as it passed through. A view of the spatial pattern of SST anomolies also shows a much more complex spatial pattern that has not been adequately simulated by any global coupled atmospheric-ocean model of climate change. Moreover, SST warmth alone is not a sufficient crtieria for stronger hurricanes. The upper level winds, including the outflow pattern must be ideal, as did occur with Katrina. Thus to attribute the hurricane’s intensity to global warming is premature. Such intense hurricanes are very much a part of the climate of the Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans even in the absense of human-caused climate change (e.g. see http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/threat_1.html)
Comment by Roger Pielke Sr. — September 6, 2005 @ 2:03 pm
http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/eryan/sst18km/ has one (older) archive of sea surface temperatures.
I’m just an interested reader here, no expertise, just pointing.
I noticed both Katrina and now Rita were described as passing over “the Loop Current” in the Gulf, a deep warm water source that can feed heat longer than the usual shallow warm water layer before cold water is pulled up.
Comment by Hank Roberts — September 22, 2005 @ 2:08 pm
Catastrophic hurricanes are not exactly new:
Phytolith assemblages as indicators of coastal environmental changes and hurricane overwash deposition
Authors: Lu, Hou-Yuan1; Liu, Kam-biu2
Source: The Holocene, Volume 15, Number 7, November 2005, pp. 965-972(8)
Publisher: Hodder Arnold Journals
View Table of Contents
full text options
Abstract:
We demonstrate that phytolith assemblages are a useful proxy for reconstructing coastal environmental changes and for validating the overwash origin of sand layers in palaeotempestology studies. Phytolith analysis was conducted on 50 topsoil or surface sediment samples collected from a variety of coastal plant communities or depositional environments in the southeastern USA. The data suggest that different coastal subenvironments can be distinguished by their modern phytolith assemblages. For example, coastal marsh samples contain a diverse phytolith assemblage dominated by smooth-elongate and square morpho-types and maritime forest samples are dominated by phytoliths from palms and broadleaf dicotyledonous plants. Remarkably, the phytolith assemblages from sand dunes are characterized by high percentages of two-horned-tower, flat-tower, spool/horned-tower and short-saddle types. Phytolith analysis of three prehistoric sand layers in a sediment core from Western Lake, northwestern Florida, shows that they contain a phytolith assemblage similar to those characteristic of sand dunes and interdune meadows. These observations are confirmed by the results of principal components analysis and discriminant analysis on the modern and fossil phytolith data sets. Our study results support the interpretation that the sand layers in Western Lake were indeed formed by the erosion of sand dunes during overwash processes caused by landfalling catastrophic hurricanes.
Comment by Paul Biggs — October 10, 2005 @ 5:52 am
TWO VIEWS ON EXTREME WEATHER
The University of Western Ontario’s daily campus paper, the Gazette, has solicited (and published) competing views on Extreme Weather, one by Dr. Madhav Khandekar, a retired research scientist at Environment Canada and one by the former Assistant deputy Minister of EC, Dr. Gordon McBean, now a professor at UWO.
Dr. Khandekar’s:
http://www.gazette.uwo.ca/article.cfm?section=Opinions&articleID=675&month=11&day=17&year=2005
Dr. McBean’s:
http://www.gazette.uwo.ca/article.cfm?section=Opinions&articleID=674&month=11&day=17&year=2005
Submitted by Albert Jacobs, Friends of Science Society, Calgary, Canada
Friends of Science Society
P. O. Box 23167, Connaught Post Office
Calgary, AB
Canada T2S 3B1
Phone / Fax: (403) 236-4203
E-mail: fos@telus.net
Website:
Comment by Albert Jacobs — November 23, 2005 @ 5:00 pm
Albert- Thank you for sharing this constructive exchange of perspectives.
Comment by Roger Pielke Sr. — November 23, 2005 @ 5:09 pm
Avoiding a Fate like Mars for Earth: Life on Planet in Imminent Danger
by Raymond Samuels
University of Toronto
Ignoring Global Warming risks precipitating a Global Pan-Famine/Starvation from Africa, right into Europe, the United States, and Canada, unless in can be stopped and reversed in a very timely manner. Such a milieu would occur with soaring temperatures, destoying the oceans, with corresponding record drought conditions in agricultural lands, threatening the food supply internationally.
There are apparently some people who think that the current “Greenhouse Effect” will simply lead to an “evolutionary” change in the global climate, so that climatic areas in the northern hemisphere like Canada, Scandinavia, Russia, Alaska in the U.S., and Antarctica in the southern hemisphere will become like one big tropical resort area like Tahiti, Cuba, or Jamaica. Soon everyone will be enjoying glorious sunshine, and sipping exotic tropical drinks in Nova Scotia, Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, or around the Arctic waters of Siberia, according to people with this apparent view. These people profess a dislike for the cold, and they therefore welcome any change that might eventually get rid of their abhored winter blaaaaahs.
Unfortunately for these people, such a view is not supported by critical scientific evidence, beyond “scientific infomercials” and propaganda pieces that have been sponsored by various well-financed Big Business interests. Indeed, it has been the job of the largely corporate owned mass-media in Canada, and elsewhere, to channel viewers, readers, and listeners into responses which will complement the elite pursuit of insatiable commercial profit. This corporate owned mass-media does not want to draw public attention to the dire fate which awaits the public, if ‘the Economy’ is not rejuvenated in a manner that minimizes social and environmental costs.
The large scale ‘owners of capital’ have structured the prevailing capitalistic economy to principally serve their interests in the pursuit of money, status, and power for themselves. Like heroine or “crack” cocaine drug addicts, ‘capitalistocrats’ have become so addicted to the pursuit of a self-absorbing materialistic lifestyle predicted on money, status, and power, they would much rather apparently destroy our planet, and all life along with it, than to change their ways of drug-like abuse. Indeed, the mass-media in the prevailing capitalistocratic systems of Canada, the United States, United Kingdom, continental Europe, and elsewhere, are no less corrupt than the politicians which they are supposedly “holding accountable”.
The mass-media has apparently covered-up the fate that awaits humanity, and the rest of our planet, if there is not an immediate substantive response to the Global Warming threat beyond the relatively superficial responses associated with the extremely slow responses to fulfilling the relatively superficial Kyoto Protocol. Indeed, failure to redress Global Warming with great alacrity, will not mythically result in northern hemispheres being turned into extensions of “tropical paradises”.
The cold air masses that hover over the Arctic and Antarctic climatic areas of the planet are absolutely vital to moderating the temperatures of planet Earth. Global Warming by the irresponsible activities of greed driven private enterprises under American led “global capitalism”, are destroying these vital climatic areas at an alarming rates. As a human species, we have already witnessed deadly heat waves and humidity. The accompanying worsening cancer causing ultra violet (UV) rays due to rapid accompanying ozone depletion is already creating experiences which almost feel like a form of radiation poisoning. Further accompanying weather cataclysms including more devastating hurricanes like Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in late Summer 2005, and other such ”weather events” are only a relatively small tip of the iceberg so-to-speak.
The “hellish” summer of 2005 internationally has poignantly showed relative to the comparatively milder Summer 2004, that changes due to the abusive activities by human beings on the planet can be sudden, and extremely drastic. The current quantuum advancing devastating destructive impacts of American-led “global capitalism” are threatening to precipitate a catastrophic global drought in vital agricultural areas internationally that the world has never ever seen; due to unending rising temperatures, that will make the traditional temperature characteristics of the tropics today (that have benefited from Arctic and Antarctic moderation) seem like comparative ice boxes. Worsening “hellish” summers will lead into hellish other parts of the year also, with the prospective disappearance of the Arctic and Antarctic climatic areas. The inevitable result of such allowed phenomenon will be an ensuing Global Famine that so far, the world has also never seen spreading from the United States and Canada, into Europe and the rest of the World.
The rising temperatures of the oceans would eventually completely destroy all vital air (oxygen) producing plankton. A global crisis in agricultural production would be further accompanied by the cascading rapid dying out of all species in the ocean. The oceans would become dead polluted waters (the Gulf of Mexico has already been basically destroyed, with other parts of the ocean following pursuit).
In such a milieu of Global Famine, the world would be taken over by various warring military camps threatening each other with nuclear annihilation, and privately-run “terrorist” organizations trying to forcibly acquire what little of the Earth is left, for the exclusive use of elites, criminal syndicates, and gangs, leaving “masses” to perish in a milieu of spiralling global starvation, and poverty in a climate of socio-economic chaos and societal upheaval. Indeed, the mass-media has hypocritically ignored the extent to which ‘capitalism’ is actually the root cause of growing apparent “terrorism” as more and more people are turning to violent political extremism, in the face of environmental destruction, related oppression, and overall declines in quality-of-living.
Having destroyed the air-producing ocean life, and rainforests under a greed driven ethos of capitalism, soon even the Global Air Supply would become threatened with the overall rapid decay of vital ecosystems. Global Warming promises the convert the whole Earth not into a tropical paradise, but rather into a giant coffin, where all life on the planet will miserably perish. The Earth will eventually become very similar to Mars sooner than you think, unless the whole economic system can rejuvenated from its self-destructive path of Global Warming and accompanying pollution including ozone depletion. The human race will simply become a footnote for other possible space exploring advanced species in the universe to study in their future scientific missions of archaeological discovery, unless humanity changes from its current overall destructive ways.
People in their communities can either choose to play Ninetendo games, and worry about various other materialistic lifestyle considerations in “blissful ignorance”, in the image of the elites who prevail over self-destructive capitalistocracies, or alternatively, people can choose to rally their governments for vitally needed social change. ‘Sober’ members of the diverse public must either become actively engaged in redressing the shortcomings of the prevailing economic system, or face the dire consequences of their jaded attitudes. Members of the diverse public who are concerned about their immediate quality-of-survival cannot afford to be complacent. These members of the diverse public must use what little that remains of destroyed democratic systems (that have been taken-over by the substantive operation of ‘capitalistocracy’) to challenge corrupted government leaders.
Government leaders have allowed themselves to be seduced and “bought-out” by self-serving greed-driven interests, that operate against the vital affirmation of the quality-of-living interests of the diverse public that these leaders were supposedly elected to serve; and against the interests of quality-of-living seeking human beings internationally. So far, these government leaders have chosen to substantively ignore capitalistocractic activities that precipitate Global Warming, and accompanying pollution and worsening poverty which are being executed by “generous donors” to their political campaigns, that prop-up their political power. People must either turn away en masse, from the norms of the prevailing capitalism that has corrupted the integrity of democratic systems, or face certain Mars-like global self-destruction.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Raymond Samuels has a professional background as an academic lectuer, and is the author/co-author/editor of diverse books.
Recommended Books:
Capitalism is Not Democracy, Part I, ISBN: 1894934636
The Kyoto Protocol Is Not Enough!, Part I:
Replace Capitalistocracy including the GDP Index
Toward a New Political Economy of
Social Justice and Environmental Protection
by Raymond Samuels II, ed.. ISBN: 1894839978, 2005
The Kyoto Protocol Is Not Enough!, Part II:
Replace Capitalistocracy including the GDP Index
Toward a New Political Economy of
Social Justice and Environmental Protection
by Raymond Samuels II, ed., ISBN: 1894934342, 2005
internet site reference:
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com
Comment by Raymond Samuels, University of Toronto — December 24, 2005 @ 9:29 pm