In 2006 we published a paper on the 2003 European heat wave titled
Chase, T.N., K. Wolter, R.A. Pielke Sr., and Ichtiaque Rasool, 2006: Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context? Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23709, doi:10.1029/2006GL027470.
William W. Connolley questioned our results and decided to investigate this issue himself (we need more such open-minded climate scientists!). He has confirmed our results in his article
Connolley W. M. (2008), Comment on “Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context?” by Thomas N. Chase et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02703, doi:10.1029/2007GL031171,
where he wrote
“Figure 1 largely replicates Figure 2 of CO6 [CO6 is the Chase et al paper].
He wrote that the shallowness of the extreme temperature values.
“….. may well indicate a strong role for surface drying in causing the 2003 event [Ferranti and Viterbo, 2006]; though Black et al. [2004] have suggested a role for large-scale anomalies leading to the surface drying.”
Our reply to his comment was published at the same time as his comment;
Chase T. N., K. Wolter, R. A. Pielke Sr., I. Rasool (2008), Reply to comment by W. M. Connolley on “Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context?”, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031574.
Our main conclusion from our 2006 paper has been independently confirmed by William Connolley. We wrote in our 2008 Chase et al Reply;
“Assuming the near-surface temperature measurements are spatially representative, the conclusion that the heat wave was a shallow phenomenon in terms of its unusualness argues against the point of view that it was a direct manifestation of the effects of increased atmospheric CO2..…. we … conclude that land surface conditions (low soil moisture) are the likely direct cause for such an “unusual” event near the surface.”
Thus, those who claim that the 2003 European heat wave is evidence of global warming are, therefore, ignoring peer reviewed literature on this subject. Instead, it appears that land surface forcing, as has been so repeatedly emphasized on Climate Science, is the main reason for the extreme heat right near the surface. Attempting to mitigate such heat waves by focusing only on CO2 emission reductions will not reduce the risk from these weather events. Clearly, adaptation must also play a major role through deliberate land management practices to reduce the threats from heat waves.