Climate Science has made as one of its main conclusions that
- The needed focus for the study of climate change and variability is on the regional and local scales. Global and zonally-averaged climate metrics would only be important to the extent that they provide useful information on these space scales
The recent prolonged rare cold and snow in China provides an excellent example to support this conclusion. As reported on China View under the title “Experts blame snow disaster on La Nina, atmospheric circulation” [thanks to ICECAP original posting on the China snows!]
“ NANCHANG, Feb. 2 (Xinhua) — The rare prolonged snowstorms and low temperatures that have caused havoc in many parts of China are mainly related to the La Nina phenomenon and abnormal atmospheric circulation, Chinese meteorologists said.
The severe weather strongly resembled the aftermath of La Nina events, which indicated that the latest development of La Nina was a primary cause of the abnormal snow, meteorologists at the Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau said.
La Nina is a large pool of unusually cold water in the equatorial Pacific that develops every few years and influences global weather. It is the climatic opposite of El Nino, which is a warming of the Pacific.
Experts said that the latest La Nina conditions developed last August throughout the tropical Pacific and strengthened at the sharpest pace in 56 years. The sea-surface temperature during the past six months was 0.5 degree Celsius lower than normal years.
”The La Nina weather pattern is expected to prevail at least till the end of spring,” said Jiao Meiyan, director of the National Meteorological Center.
Chinese meteorologists also pointed out that the abnormal atmospheric circulation in some regions of Europe and Asia, which has persisted for nearly 20 days since mid-January, was responsible for the rampant chilly weather, rain and snowstorms.
Snow storms that hit 19 provinces in southern and central China, the worst in 50 years, have killed more than 60 people and forced nearly 1.8 million people to relocate over the past three weeks, inflicting economic losses of about 53.9 billion yuan (7.5 billion U.S. dollars), according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs on Friday. “
This “abnormal” atmospheric weather effect is indeed far reaching. As another example, see
“Hard weather hits Iran’s weak point” by Michael Slackman in the International Herald Tribune yesterday
where it is written
“TEHRAN: In one of the coldest winters Iranians have experienced in recent memory, the government is failing to provide natural gas to tens of thousands of people across the country, leaving some for days or even weeks with no heat at all. Here in the capital, rolling blackouts every night for a month have left people without electricity and heat for hours at a time.”
One major conclusion that should be reached from the unpredicted wide ranging severe cold and snow this winter, is that multi-decadal global climate models have demonstrated no skill in predicting such regional events which clearly have a major impact on society and the environment.