Climate Science has been encouraging the adoption of a vulnerability perspective as a much more effective method to reduce risk to climate and other environmental and social issues than provided by a reliance on downscaling from multi-decadal global model predictions; e.g. see
Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
Pielke Sr., R.A., J.O. Adegoke, T.N. Chase, C.H. Marshall, T. Matsui, and D. Niyogi, 2007: A new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in the climate system and in climate change. Agric. Forest Meteor., Special Issue, 132, 234-254.
There is an effective and very important publication by T. Stohlgren, C. Jarnevich and S. Kumar entitled “Forest legacies, climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species and water” which provides more substance to this approach.
The abstract reads
“Climate is a major driver of forest species distributions and the growth rate and structure of forests. Thus, climate change can potentially have significant effects on mountain forest hydrology, particularly the amount of water available downstream. However, many other factors influence forest biomass and mountain hydrology, and climate change effects cannot be viewed in isolation from previous land use histories (i.e. forest legacies), altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire frequency, insect outbreaks, floods) and invasive species. Based on research from Colorado, United States, this article examines the many factors that must be considered in seeking to predict changes in water availability.”
Among the significant conclusions of this paper is that
To develop a predictive science, water managers have a long way to go. Despite the general trends discussed above, site-specific predictions and models of stream flow have eluded scientists. For example, in 2002 precipitation in Denver, Colorado was below average, and newspapers at the time predicted continued drought and low runoff for the city’s water supply. However, subsequent years (through 2007) had much higher and even above-average runoff despite the regional trends of warmer temperatures (Denver Water, 2007). Unfortunately, scientists have yet to create accurate predictions of stream flow months to seasons in advance.
This article effectively highlights the need for integrative assessments, and the lack of predictive skill that exists. It is an important much needed contribution to climate science, and environmental science in general.