Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group News

There is a new book on climate that should be a must read regardless of your perspective on the role of humans in the climate system.

It is

Climate of Extremes: Global Warming Science They Don’t Want You to Know by Patrick J. Michaels and Robert C. Balling Jr.

Both of these peer reviewed published climate scientists have been active in seeking to promote a wider discussion on the science of the climate system. The authors select a set of climate metrics and show that the reality is quite a bit more complex and often at variance with that reported in the IPCC and CCSP reports. Their chapter 7 also effectively documents a significant bias in the reporting of climate change by the media, which has misled the public and policymakers on the real world behaviour of the climate and the role of humans within it.

This book is a challenge to the IPCC and CCSP editors and lead authors. If they disagree with the conclusions in this book, they should report on this with scientific documentation. If they are silent and ignore the book, however, this will, by itself, help further document the bias that Michaels and Balling discuss in their book.

I highly recommend this book by two very qualified climate scientists for everyone who is open-minded about climate science, and want to learn that there are scientifically supported perspectives which are not being reported by the media and the IPCC and CCSP assessments.

There is a valuable new book of a collection of papers [thanks to Marc Bierkens to alerting us to it1];

Climate and the Hydrological Cycle, 2008; Edited by M.F.P. Bierkens, A.J. Dolman, P.A. Troch. IAHS Special Publications 8. ISBN 978-1-901502-54-1. 344 pp,

which provides documentation in several of its papers as to why the hydrologic cycle is an intimate component of the climate system, as was concluded in the 2005 NRC report

National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties. Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate Change, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 208 pp.

 The Bierkens et al 2008 book writes in the Preface

“Recently, atmospheric scientists have turned more and more to hydrology to come up with better land-atmosphere paramterizations in order to improve climate models and weather prediction. These developments have led to an almost separate hydrological discipline, called ‘climate hydrology’, in which hydrological systems are viewed as part of the climate system, being both influenced by climate change and variability, as well as constraining the climate system through positive and negative feedbacks. The study of the hydrological cycle in the context of the climate system has developed sufficiently to warrant a self-contained book on the subject.”

Not all of the articles in the book present the broader view of the climate (several perpetuate the narrow IPCC perspective), but several are significant new contributions to the much needed expansion of thinking with respect to the climate.

This book should be added to any library that wants to broaden our perspective on the climate system, as was urged in my essay

Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55

and Congressional testimony

Pielke Sr., Roger A., 2008: A Broader View of the Role of Humans in the Climate System is Required In the Assessment of Costs and Benefits of Effective Climate Policy. Written Testimony for the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality of the Committee on Energy and Commerce Hearing “Climate Change: Costs of Inaction” – Honorable Rick Boucher, Chairman. June 26, 2008, Washington, DC., 52 pp.

For over 25 years, I taught a course on synoptic weather analysis and forecasting (for an example of my course syllabus;see). As part of that course, I completed a set of notes that might be of use to others. Dallas Staley has graciously scanned them and placed the notes on our research website. They are available at

Pielke Sr., R.A. 2002: Synoptic Weather Lab Notes. Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science Class Report #1, Final Version, August 20, 2002.

The Table of Contents is given on pages ii-iii. Quiz and Exams are presented in the Appendices.

The relevance to climate, of course, is that it is the synoptic weather features which result in the weather that we experience and which effects social and environmental resources, not a global average surface temperature anomaly.  Long term changes in synoptic weather features are required in order to result in long term climate change.

There is a set of excellent publications and science reports by Forrest M. Mims III at
 www.forrestmims.org and www.sunandsky.org. Mims has had a career as a science author, lecturer and syndicated columnist. He has written instructional books on electronics and published papers and photographs in some 70 magazines and journals, including Nature, Science and Popular Mechanics. He is a writer and editor for the Society for Amateur Scientists.

Among his substantial contributions, he soon will have a book published on the Mauna Loa Observatory  (see), which will a very important new addition to our knowledge of this important climate monitoring site. This book will also provide much deserved recognition to Robert H. Simpson for the creation (i.e. the father) of the Mauna Loa Observatory.

Examples of his significant contributions include:

07 March 2008
Trees Can Cool Islands of Heat
http://www.sas.org/tcs/weeklyIssues_2008/2008-03-07/mimsci/index.html

16 April 2004
Announcing Citizen Science Challenge 1: Solar Warming of Asphalt Roads
http://www.sas.org/tcs/weeklyIssues/2004-04-16/news1/index.html

30 July 2004
Wanted: Citizen weather observers
http://www.sas.org/tcs/weeklyIssues/2004-07-30/news3/index.html

11 March 2005
Questions and Answers About Climate Change
http://www.sas.org/tcs/weeklyIssues_2005/2005-03-11/editorial/

08 April 2005
More Questions and Answers About Climate Change
http://www.sas.org/tcs/weeklyIssues_2005/2005-04-08/editorial/index.html

Pulse of the Planet
The radio programs are archived at http://www.pulseplanet.com/dailyprogram/
Mims Pulse of the Planet Blog:
http://pulseplanet.com/sci-diaries/sd_mims/

MY NASA DATA
http://mynasadata.larc.nasa.gov/science_projects.php
I’ve developed 14 science projects for this web site, including a new one soon to be posted on the urban heat island effect and how to measure it.

Climate Science readers will obtain new insight into a range of climate issues, including the urban heat island effect, by reading and listening to the information available on these links!

Below is a second review of our book Human Impacts on Weather and Climate 2nd Edition. The review by internationally respected  Hans von Storch  of the Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center will appear in Meteorlogishe Zeitschrift. [see the first review].

The review is

“This is a book of two eminent meteorologists, who write about climate. They write about atmospheric physics, about processes, in quite some detail, with very many references. Not much math, but quit a few sketches and diagrams. For anybody who wants an overview what processes, which issues, which paradigms and views prevail, this book is very useful. But it is not an easy read, not a book which can be read on the train from Bonn to Hamburg. Compared to the first version of the book, this 2nd edition is less good in telling a concept, in telling its “story”; instead it is providing lots of information, of details - without being a textbook useful for the class room.

The book is written in three “parts” and an epilogue.

Part I, “The rise and fall of the science of weather modification by cloud seeding” tells about a once fancy science, which had and still has its merits, but suffered from “overselling”. In a sense, this part provides the morale of the whole book - overselling scientific knowledge and scientific potentials leads eventually to a crash; not the individual scientists, who are engaged in overselling, are paying for the short term success, but the community as a whole. Obviously, this example is meant an example, or analogy, of the present “global warming” debate, which the authors consider as overheated.

Part II, “Inadvertent human impacts on regional weather and climate” is dealing with the effects of urbanization and land-use/land-cover changes. Issues addressed are irrigation, deforestation and desertification. Atmospheric processes are dealt with in great detail, but the analysis of changing long-terms statistics are not really taken into account. Disappointing is that the authors have not really dealt with the historical perspective. The impact of deforestation is an issue which was dealt since the late 18th century (e.g., Grove, R.H, 1975: Green Imperialism. Expansion, Tropical Islands Edens and the Origins of Environmentalism 1600 - 1860. Cambridge University Press; Stehr, N., and H. von Storch (Eds.), 2000: Eduard Brückner - The Sources and Consequences of Climate Change and Climate Variability in Historical Times. Kluwer Academic Publisher; Pfister, C., and D. Brändli,1999: Rodungen im Gebirge - Überschwemmungen im Vorland: Ein Deutungsmuster macht Karriere. In R.P. Sieferle and H. Greunigener (Hrsg.) Natur-Bilder. Wahrnehmungen von Natur und Umwelt in der Geschichte Campus Verlag Frankfurt/ New York, 9-18). Such ideas are thus part of our (western) cultural fabric, and certainly also influence scientific thinking.

Part III, “Human impacts of global climate” deals with the modifications of the atmospheric radiation budget due to changing concentrations of carbon dioxide, water vapor, aerosols and dust. The nuclear winter hypothesis is discussed; the knowledge about global effects of changing land surface conditions is reviewed. Again, the problem is looked at from the viewpoint of processes, while the angle of empirical evidence based on long term statistics is almost entirely disregarded. No mentioning is made of the concept of “detection” of non-natural climate change and “attribution” of most likely causes. The short subsection on the IPCC is much too short; hidden in this section is a definition of what the authors consider to be a prediction” - their definition includes projections and scenarios, so that the two words “forecast” and “predictions” are very different terms.

In the epilogue, the authors leave their “scientific sector of competence” but discuss general societal issue of the process of science in a politically driven society. This is a thoughtful and interesting part of the book, a good read. In particular the chapter “Scientific credibility and advocacy” is interesting, albeit very short - a much deeper discussion “The honest broker” has been published by the son of the second author, Roger Pielke Jr. in 2008.

However, in the subsection “The dangers of overselling” the authors become inconsistent with their own definition of “predictions” - they claim that contemporary models are ” not capable of predicting climate” - thus no realistic scenarios possible? - and they can not be included “in quantitative forecast systems” - who is claiming the latter? Certainly, such models are capable of making “credible predictions of long term climate trends and regional impacts”, when the word “predictions” is understood as scenarios, i.e., “descriptions of plausible, possible, internally consistent but not necessarily probable futures”. They are not capable of making credible forecasts (meaning specifying most probable states at some future time), right.

In summary - this book constitutes a good contribution to the present debate about humans’ influence on climate; it brings in many different and valid view points. Bill Cotton and Roger Pielke sr. widen the horizon of understanding and options, which we see limited by those who are zealous to use scientific knowledge in shaping culturally preferred policies, who prune scientific knowledge claims according to their political utility.”

The January 2008 issue of the Bulletin of the Meteorology Society published a Review by Stanley A. Changnon of our book

Cotton, W.R. and R.A. Pielke, 2007: Human impacts on weather and climate, Cambridge University Press, 330 pp.

The text is reproduced below and linked as a pdf.

This book is available for purchase at:
ORDER DEPT • CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS • 100 BROOK HILL DRIVE • WEST NYACK, NY 10994 TOLL-FREE: (800) 872-7423 / FAX: (845) 348-4545

We have make a pdf of our 1997 book “Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society” available as a pdf for those who are interested. It can be obtained at

http://www.textbookx.com/exchange_detail.php?isbn=9780471973546

The book orginally appeared in 1997:

Pielke, R.A., Jr. and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society. John Wiley and Sons, England, 279 pp. [View Table of Contents].

Bjørn Lomborg new book “Cool Its” continues his effort to communicate that a broader perspective on environmental issues is needed if effective policy action is to be undertaken to reduce threats to society and the environment through an effective mix of mitigation and adaptation. This is a theme we also have emphasized in the publications

Kabat, P., Claussen, M., Dirmeyer, P.A., J.H.C. Gash, L. Bravo de Guenni, M. Meybeck, R.A. Pielke Sr., C.J. Vorosmarty, R.W.A. Hutjes, and S. Lutkemeier, Editors, 2004: Vegetation, water, humans and the climate: A new perspective on an interactive system. Springer, Berlin, Global Change - The IGBP Series, 566 pp -

see

Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Introduction. Chapter E.1 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. P. Kabat et al., Eds., Global Change -The IGBP Series, Springer, 483-484;

Pielke, R.A. Sr., G. Petschel-Held, P. Kabat, B. Bass, M.F. Hutchinson, V. Gupta, R.A. Pielke Jr., M. Claussen, and D.S. Ojima, 2004: Predictability and uncertainty. Chapter E.2 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 485-490.

Pielke, R.A. Sr., and T.J. Stohlgren, 2004: Contrast between predictive and vulnerability approaches. Chapter E.3 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 491-495;

Bravo de Guenni, L., R.E. Schulze, R.A. Pielke Sr., and M.F. Hutchinson, 2004: The vulnerability approach. Chapter E.5 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 499-514;

Pielke, R.A. Sr., C.J. Vorosmarty, J. Brunner, C. Revenga, B. Fekete, P. Green, Y. Kura, and K. Thompson, 2004: Case studies. Chapter E.6 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 515-536;

Pielke, R.A. Sr., and L. Bravo de Guenni, 2004: Conclusions. Chapter E.7 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 537-538;

and in

Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.

This need to provide policymakers with a complete assessment of risks that society and the enviromment face is complemented effectively by the book by Roger A. Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics.

Bjorn Lomborg’s and Roger Pielke Jr.’s books are worth reading!

Lomborg, however, accepts the claims that the 2003 European heat wave was associated with global warming, and then contrasts deaths from heat and cold waves.
This is exemplified by the discussion in Discovery Magazine where it is written

“The heat wave in Europe in early August 2003 was a catastrophe of heartbreaking proportions. With more than 3,500 dead in Paris alone, France suffered nearly 15,000 fatalities from the heat wave. Another 7,000 died in Germany, 8,000 in Spain and Italy, and 2,000 in the United Kingdom: The total death toll ran to more than 35,000. Understandably, this event has become a psychologically powerful metaphor for the frightening vision of a warmer future and our immediate need to prevent it.

The green group Earth Policy Institute, which first totaled the deaths, tells us that as “awareness of the scale of this tragedy spreads, it is likely to generate pressure to reduce carbon emissions. For many of the millions who suffered through these record heat waves and the relatives of the tens of thousands who died, cutting carbon emissions is becoming a pressing personal issue.�?

The case he presents in his books regarding the heat waves is that

“While 35,000 dead is a terrifyingly large number, all deaths should in principle be treated with equal concern. Yet this is not happening. When 2,000 people died from heat in the United Kingdom, it produced a public outcry that is still heard. However, the BBC recently ran a very quiet story telling us that deaths caused by cold weather in England and Wales for the past years have hovered around 25,000 each winter, casually adding that the winters of 1998–2000 saw about 47,000 cold deaths each year. The story then goes on to discuss how the government should make the cost of winter fuel economically bearable and how the majority of deaths are caused by strokes and heart attacks.

It is remarkable that a single heat-death episode of 35,000 from many countries can get everyone up in arms, whereas cold deaths of 25,000 to 50,000 a year in just a single country pass almost unnoticed. Of course, we want to help avoid another 2,000 dying from heat in the United Kingdom. But presumably we also want to avoid many more dying from cold.”

This is a persuasive argument. However, it assumes that the European heat wave was due to global warming. In

Chase, T.N., K. Wolter, R.A. Pielke Sr., and Ichtiaque Rasool, 2006: Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context? Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23709, doi:10.1029/2006GL027470

(as Bjorn also mentions in his book), we showed that this heat wave, within the global context, was not an unprecedented event, and such large extremes in weather, both warm and cold, occur every year.

Recently, William Connelly tested our claim and confirmed our conclusions [we will provide the link to his comment as soon as this is permitted by the AGU (i.e. published)]. He did conclude that the 2003 heat wave as measured by the near surface temperature was more unusual than the 1000-500mb depth-averaged temperature anomaly. However, he obtained the same conclusion that we did with respect to the 1000-500mb depth-averaged temperature anomaly.

In our reply to his comment

Chase, T.N., K. Wolter, R.A. Pielke Sr., and Ichtiaque Rasool, 2007: Response to: Connelly, W.M., “Comment on Chase et al., 2006: Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context? Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.

we state that

“….the effects of increasing anthropogenic CO2 on atmospheric temperature are expected to extend vertically through the troposphere, at least climatologically (Trenberth et al., 2007; CCSP Report, 2006). Assuming the near-surface temperature measurements are spatially representative, the conclusion that the heat wave was a shallow phenomenon in terms of its unusualness argues against the point of view that it was a direct manifestation of the effects of increased atmospheric CO2.”

Thus, Bjorn Lomborg’s book, which emphasizes that a broader view on environmental risk is needed, is supported even more since this heat wave was not even due to global warming, but was closely related to the lack of surface evaporation which would have reduced somewhat the extreme high temperatures near the surface. This lack of moisture was due to antecedent dry conditions, as well as the landscape type where people live (e.g. urban centers!), not global warming.

In the book

Cotton, W.R. and R.A. Pielke, 2007: Human impacts on weather and climate, Cambridge University Press, 330 pp,

we presented results by Norm Woods (who works with Graeme Stephens) on the magnitude of radiative forcing for three types of vertical temperature and moisture soundings (tropical; winter subarctic and summer subarctic). Climate Science has summarized this study in the past (e.g., see the May 5th blog entitled Relative Roles of CO2 and Water Vapor in Radiative Forcing).

This weblog presents further analyses of these soundings by Norm Woods.

The total forcings are evaluated as the increase in flux convergence at the tropopause, and also divided these into the atmospheric and surface portions. As before, these results are for a change from 280 to 560 ppmv of CO2 [Norm presented this values with the same precision as the model output to show that they balanced].

Among the interesting results that he found is that the subarctic winter has the weakest total forcing, but the greatest surface forcing.

These results illustrate why presenting a single number of radiative forcing as a metric of climate change (such as given in Figure SPM.2 in the 2007 WG1 Statement for Policymakers of the IPCC) is a poor way to assess how the radiative forcing of CO2 and water vapor actually affect weather and other aspects of the climate system. Both the regional and vertical forcing vary geographically and with season, and obviously a global average top of the atmosphere radiative forcing does not capture this important heterogeneity in the climate forcings (also see).

Thanks to Geoff Smith for alerting us to this important new research paper on the role of land surface processes within the climate system. The paper is

Davin, E. L., N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, and P. Friedlingstein (2007), Impact of land cover change on surface climate: Relevance of the radiative forcing concept, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L13702, doi:10.1029/2007GL029678.

The abstract reads

“We use the IPSL climate model to investigate biophysical impacts of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change (ALCC) on surface climate. Including both the changes in surface albedo and evapotranspiration, we find that ALCC represents a radiative forcing of −0.29 W/m2 from 1860 to 1992 and of −0.7 W/m2 from 1992 to 2100. The simulated surface temperature response to ALCC indicates a historical cooling of 0.05 K and an additional cooling due to future changes of 0.14 K, which is consistent with the sign of the radiative forcing. However, this cooling is substantially lower than the one we would have obtained if it was caused by a radiatively equivalent change in CO2 concentration. These results thus question the relevance of the radiative forcing framework in the context of land use change, since the radiative forcing due to ALCC may not be comparable to the one exerted by other anthropogenic perturbations. ”

Indeed, the radiative forcing due to ALCC is not directly comparable to the global average radiative forcing of the well mixed greenhouse gases (as was discussed yesterday on Climate Science for other climate forcings). This paper illustrates why we need to move beyond defining “Climate Sensitivity” as a global average metric.

“Climate sensitivity” should be a matrix of metrics that are determined by stakeholders who define what are the important climate quantities with respect to their specific resource (such as local growing degree days, summer rainfall, etc). Then the challenge to the climate modeling community is whether they can skillfully predict changes in these metrics in the coming years and decades.