The January 2008 issue of the Bulletin of the Meteorology Society published a Review by Stanley A. Changnon of our book
Cotton, W.R. and R.A. Pielke, 2007: Human impacts on weather and climate, Cambridge University Press, 330 pp.
The text is reproduced below and linked as a pdf.
This book is available for purchase at:
ORDER DEPT • CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS • 100 BROOK HILL DRIVE • WEST NYACK, NY 10994 TOLL-FREE: (800) 872-7423 / FAX: (845) 348-4545
We have make a pdf of our 1997 book “Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society” available as a pdf for those who are interested. It can be obtained at
http://www.textbookx.com/exchange_detail.php?isbn=9780471973546
The book orginally appeared in 1997:
Pielke, R.A., Jr. and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society. John Wiley and Sons, England, 279 pp. [View Table of Contents].
Bjørn Lomborg new book “Cool Its” continues his effort to communicate that a broader perspective on environmental issues is needed if effective policy action is to be undertaken to reduce threats to society and the environment through an effective mix of mitigation and adaptation. This is a theme we also have emphasized in the publications
Kabat, P., Claussen, M., Dirmeyer, P.A., J.H.C. Gash, L. Bravo de Guenni, M. Meybeck, R.A. Pielke Sr., C.J. Vorosmarty, R.W.A. Hutjes, and S. Lutkemeier, Editors, 2004: Vegetation, water, humans and the climate: A new perspective on an interactive system. Springer, Berlin, Global Change - The IGBP Series, 566 pp -
see
Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Introduction. Chapter E.1 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. P. Kabat et al., Eds., Global Change -The IGBP Series, Springer, 483-484;
Pielke, R.A. Sr., G. Petschel-Held, P. Kabat, B. Bass, M.F. Hutchinson, V. Gupta, R.A. Pielke Jr., M. Claussen, and D.S. Ojima, 2004: Predictability and uncertainty. Chapter E.2 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 485-490.
Pielke, R.A. Sr., and T.J. Stohlgren, 2004: Contrast between predictive and vulnerability approaches. Chapter E.3 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 491-495;
Bravo de Guenni, L., R.E. Schulze, R.A. Pielke Sr., and M.F. Hutchinson, 2004: The vulnerability approach. Chapter E.5 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 499-514;
Pielke, R.A. Sr., C.J. Vorosmarty, J. Brunner, C. Revenga, B. Fekete, P. Green, Y. Kura, and K. Thompson, 2004: Case studies. Chapter E.6 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 515-536;
Pielke, R.A. Sr., and L. Bravo de Guenni, 2004: Conclusions. Chapter E.7 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 537-538;
and in
Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
This need to provide policymakers with a complete assessment of risks that society and the enviromment face is complemented effectively by the book by Roger A. Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics.
Bjorn Lomborg’s and Roger Pielke Jr.’s books are worth reading!
Lomborg, however, accepts the claims that the 2003 European heat wave was associated with global warming, and then contrasts deaths from heat and cold waves.
This is exemplified by the discussion in Discovery Magazine where it is written
“The heat wave in Europe in early August 2003 was a catastrophe of heartbreaking proportions. With more than 3,500 dead in Paris alone, France suffered nearly 15,000 fatalities from the heat wave. Another 7,000 died in Germany, 8,000 in Spain and Italy, and 2,000 in the United Kingdom: The total death toll ran to more than 35,000. Understandably, this event has become a psychologically powerful metaphor for the frightening vision of a warmer future and our immediate need to prevent it.
The green group Earth Policy Institute, which first totaled the deaths, tells us that as “awareness of the scale of this tragedy spreads, it is likely to generate pressure to reduce carbon emissions. For many of the millions who suffered through these record heat waves and the relatives of the tens of thousands who died, cutting carbon emissions is becoming a pressing personal issue.�
The case he presents in his books regarding the heat waves is that
“While 35,000 dead is a terrifyingly large number, all deaths should in principle be treated with equal concern. Yet this is not happening. When 2,000 people died from heat in the United Kingdom, it produced a public outcry that is still heard. However, the BBC recently ran a very quiet story telling us that deaths caused by cold weather in England and Wales for the past years have hovered around 25,000 each winter, casually adding that the winters of 1998–2000 saw about 47,000 cold deaths each year. The story then goes on to discuss how the government should make the cost of winter fuel economically bearable and how the majority of deaths are caused by strokes and heart attacks.
It is remarkable that a single heat-death episode of 35,000 from many countries can get everyone up in arms, whereas cold deaths of 25,000 to 50,000 a year in just a single country pass almost unnoticed. Of course, we want to help avoid another 2,000 dying from heat in the United Kingdom. But presumably we also want to avoid many more dying from cold.”
This is a persuasive argument. However, it assumes that the European heat wave was due to global warming. In
Chase, T.N., K. Wolter, R.A. Pielke Sr., and Ichtiaque Rasool, 2006: Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context? Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23709, doi:10.1029/2006GL027470
(as Bjorn also mentions in his book), we showed that this heat wave, within the global context, was not an unprecedented event, and such large extremes in weather, both warm and cold, occur every year.
Recently, William Connelly tested our claim and confirmed our conclusions [we will provide the link to his comment as soon as this is permitted by the AGU (i.e. published)]. He did conclude that the 2003 heat wave as measured by the near surface temperature was more unusual than the 1000-500mb depth-averaged temperature anomaly. However, he obtained the same conclusion that we did with respect to the 1000-500mb depth-averaged temperature anomaly.
In our reply to his comment
Chase, T.N., K. Wolter, R.A. Pielke Sr., and Ichtiaque Rasool, 2007: Response to: Connelly, W.M., “Comment on Chase et al., 2006: Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context? Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.
we state that
“….the effects of increasing anthropogenic CO2 on atmospheric temperature are expected to extend vertically through the troposphere, at least climatologically (Trenberth et al., 2007; CCSP Report, 2006). Assuming the near-surface temperature measurements are spatially representative, the conclusion that the heat wave was a shallow phenomenon in terms of its unusualness argues against the point of view that it was a direct manifestation of the effects of increased atmospheric CO2.”
Thus, Bjorn Lomborg’s book, which emphasizes that a broader view on environmental risk is needed, is supported even more since this heat wave was not even due to global warming, but was closely related to the lack of surface evaporation which would have reduced somewhat the extreme high temperatures near the surface. This lack of moisture was due to antecedent dry conditions, as well as the landscape type where people live (e.g. urban centers!), not global warming.
In the book
Cotton, W.R. and R.A. Pielke, 2007: Human impacts on weather and climate, Cambridge University Press, 330 pp,
we presented results by Norm Woods (who works with Graeme Stephens) on the magnitude of radiative forcing for three types of vertical temperature and moisture soundings (tropical; winter subarctic and summer subarctic). Climate Science has summarized this study in the past (e.g., see the May 5th blog entitled Relative Roles of CO2 and Water Vapor in Radiative Forcing).
This weblog presents further analyses of these soundings by Norm Woods.
The total forcings are evaluated as the increase in flux convergence at the tropopause, and also divided these into the atmospheric and surface portions. As before, these results are for a change from 280 to 560 ppmv of CO2 [Norm presented this values with the same precision as the model output to show that they balanced].
Among the interesting results that he found is that the subarctic winter has the weakest total forcing, but the greatest surface forcing.
These results illustrate why presenting a single number of radiative forcing as a metric of climate change (such as given in Figure SPM.2 in the 2007 WG1 Statement for Policymakers of the IPCC) is a poor way to assess how the radiative forcing of CO2 and water vapor actually affect weather and other aspects of the climate system. Both the regional and vertical forcing vary geographically and with season, and obviously a global average top of the atmosphere radiative forcing does not capture this important heterogeneity in the climate forcings (also see).
Thanks to Geoff Smith for alerting us to this important new research paper on the role of land surface processes within the climate system. The paper is
Davin, E. L., N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, and P. Friedlingstein (2007), Impact of land cover change on surface climate: Relevance of the radiative forcing concept, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L13702, doi:10.1029/2007GL029678.
The abstract reads
“We use the IPSL climate model to investigate biophysical impacts of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change (ALCC) on surface climate. Including both the changes in surface albedo and evapotranspiration, we find that ALCC represents a radiative forcing of −0.29 W/m2 from 1860 to 1992 and of −0.7 W/m2 from 1992 to 2100. The simulated surface temperature response to ALCC indicates a historical cooling of 0.05 K and an additional cooling due to future changes of 0.14 K, which is consistent with the sign of the radiative forcing. However, this cooling is substantially lower than the one we would have obtained if it was caused by a radiatively equivalent change in CO2 concentration. These results thus question the relevance of the radiative forcing framework in the context of land use change, since the radiative forcing due to ALCC may not be comparable to the one exerted by other anthropogenic perturbations. ”
Indeed, the radiative forcing due to ALCC is not directly comparable to the global average radiative forcing of the well mixed greenhouse gases (as was discussed yesterday on Climate Science for other climate forcings). This paper illustrates why we need to move beyond defining “Climate Sensitivity” as a global average metric.
“Climate sensitivity” should be a matrix of metrics that are determined by stakeholders who define what are the important climate quantities with respect to their specific resource (such as local growing degree days, summer rainfall, etc). Then the challenge to the climate modeling community is whether they can skillfully predict changes in these metrics in the coming years and decades.
There is a discount available to our blog readers interested in purchasing Dr. Pielke’s new book entitled Human Impacts on Weather and Climate written with William Cotton. The previous flyer that we posted provided ordering details through England, but this flyer is for the United States.
The flyer allows a 20% discount off of the list price. See attached
discountflyer.pdf
I want to thank Paolo M. and Dan Hughes for bringing the paper listed below to the attention of Climate Science (see their comments #45 and #46) on glacier advances and retreat. This topic has been discussed on Climate Science; see
Glacier Advance and Retreat - Another Example Of The Complexity of This Climate Metric
New Paper On The Climate of Mount Kilimanjaro
Complexity of Current Glacial Advance and Retreat
The paper is
Fowler, H.J. and Archer, D.R. 2006. Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Climate 19: 4276-4293.
with the abstract
“Temperature data for seven instrumental records in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analyzed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 1961–2000 and compared with neighboring mountain regions and the Indian subcontinent. Strong contrasts are found between the behavior of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatures.Winter mean and maximum temperature show significant increases while mean and minimum summer temperatures show consistent decline. Increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) is consistently observed in all seasons and the annual dataset, a pattern shared by much of the Indian subcontinent but in direct contrast to both GCM projections and the narrowing of DTR seen worldwide. This divergence commenced around the middle of the twentieth century and is thought to result from changes in large-scale circulation patterns and feedback processes associated with the Indian monsoon.
The impact of observed seasonal temperature trend on runoff is explored using derived regression relationships. Decreases of [about] 20% in summer runoff in the rivers Hunza and Shyok are estimated to have resulted from the observed 1°C fall in mean summer temperature since 1961, with even greater reductions in spring months. The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas. This suggests that the western Himalayas are showing a different response to global warming than other parts of the globe.”
This paper shows that when you actually investigate real world data on the regional scale, you quickly find that the concept of “global warming” fails as an adequate climate metric to assess climate change. Indeed, the climate in any region depends on the temperatures, precipitation and other climate variables in that region, not on a global average in any metric. Neither the observed thickening nor expansion of the Karakoram glaciers, nor the widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas respond to a global average. This critically important information was left off of the 2007 IPPC Statement for Policymakers in the third bullet on page 7.
A special 20% discount is available for weblog visitors
Soon to be published by Cambridge University Press the Second Edition of…
Human Impacts on Weather and Climate
Second Edition
William R. Cotton
Colorado State University
and Roger A. Pielke, Sr.
University of Colorado, Boulder
This new edition of Human Impacts on Weather and Climate examines the scientific and political debates surrounding anthropogenic impacts on the Earth’s climate and presents the most recent theories, data and modeling studies. The book discusses the concepts behind deliberate human attempts to modify the weather through cloud seeding, as well as inadvertent modification of weather and climate on the regional scale. The natural variability of weather and climate greatly complicates our ability to determine a clear cause-and-effect relationship to human activity. The authors describe the basic theories and critique them in simple and accessible terms. This fully revised edition will be a valuable resource for undergraduate and graduate courses in atmospheric and environmental science, and will also appeal to policymakers and general readers interested in how humans are affecting the global climate.
February 2007 247 x 174 mm 320pp 64 line diagrams 20 halftones
20 colour plates 104 figures
Hardback £65.00 978-0-521-84086-6
Paperback £29.99 978-0-521-60056-9
For more information or to order your inspection copy visit: www.cambridge.org/9780521600569
Weblog editor: Dallas Staley (dallas AT cires DOT colorado DOT edu)
